National Statement on the Network of Licensed Early Childhood Services
Commencement Date: 1 February 2023
1. A high-quality network of licensed early childhood services is key to achieving an early learning system that enables every child to achieve their full potential and that supports their identity, language and culture, and is valued by parents and whānau.
2. Network management of licensed early childhood services is a regulatory function that supports this goal by helping to ensure that all children have access to quality early learning settings and prevent the unintended consequences of oversupply in specific areas.
3. Any person intending to operate a new licensed education service (which is not an excluded service) must apply for approval from the Minister of Education under section 17 of the Education and Training Act 2020 before applying for a license.
4. This Statement provides potential applicants for approval with information about the network of licensed early childhood services including:
5. As described in section 17(2)(a-g) of the Education and Training Act 2020 the Minister in assessing applications for network approval must take into account:
6. Key process information is outlined in the Education (Early Childhood Services Network Approval) Regulations 2022.
7. The Ministry of Education has made further information on the application process, including how to apply, available at https://www.education.govt.nz/early-childhood/running-a-service/starting-a-service/network-management.
8. These strategic priorities describe the types of service offerings that the Government considers to be a priority for ensuring availability within the network of licensed early childhood services.
9. Meeting a priority is not a prerequisite for receiving network approval. However, as set out below, the extent to which a proposed service will meet a priority will be considered when the Minister takes into account whether the service will meet a need in the area to be served, as well as other relevant information about supply, demand and need. If a proposed service will meet a priority, it will be considered more favourably in these assessments. For example if two similar services apply for network approval in the same area, the one that meets a priority to the greater extent is more likely to be approved.
Priority |
Definition |
Māori bilingual and immersion services |
Services where te reo Māori is used at least 51% of the time as a medium of instruction. |
Hapū/iwi-owned services |
Services that are majority owned by hapū or iwi. |
Services with a distinct Māori identity and culture |
Services that have a distinct Māori identity and use Māori cultural practices and values that inform the service provision. |
Pacific bilingual and immersion services |
Services where a Pacific language is used at least 51% of the time as a medium of instruction. |
Pacific language and/or cultural services |
Services that have distinct Pacific identities, cultural practices, languages, and values that inform the service provision. |
Language immersion services (non-English/Māori/Pacific) |
Services where a language other than English, Māori or a Pacific language is used at least 51% of the time as a medium of instruction. |
Services well-equipped for learning support needs |
Services with a particular focus on providing services and support to children with a range of learning support needs. |
Services well-equipped for migrants and former refugees |
Services that are well-equipped for supporting children and communities with migrant and/or refugee backgrounds. |
Services planned to operate on a new school site |
Services that are planned to operate on a newly-built school site in growth areas or adjacent to growth areas. |
Organisations funded by Targeted Assistance for Participation (TAP) |
This is a transitional priority that covers any organisations that already have funding approved through TAP prior to network management commencing on 1 February 2023 as set out in the Bill. |
Wrap around services |
Early childhood services which are set up to facilitate access to other social services, including health and family support alongside early childhood education. |
10. Applicants are expected to identify and consider the area that the proposed service will serve, and the relevant attributes of that area.
11. For most types of early childhood education and care services, the area to be served will predominantly be the nearby geographic area (including the people living and working in that area). To enable demographic and other statistical information to be considered about the area, the starting point is that the nearby geographic area is the Statistical Area Unit 2 (SA2) in which the proposed service would be located and the adjoining SA2s.
12. For hospital-based services, the community to be served are the children under the age of 6 years who are receiving hospital care in the relevant hospital.
13. For home-based education and care services, the area to be served will not necessarily be the nearby geographic area but should be identified by the applicant.
14. Despite these starting points, the Minister may consider that a service is likely to serve a broader or more specific area, including an identifiable community within an area or areas, if there is information available that provides reasonable grounds to support that assessment.
15. The Minister will take into account a high-level assessment of the relevant attributes of the area to be served, including the demography of the area, the needs of the communities in the area, the needs of the children in the area, and the availability of licensed early childhood services in the area with different offerings (for example, the provision of te reo Māori).
16. This assessment may take into account relevant information relating to supply, forecast growth, demand, and need for licensed early childhood services in the area to be served, as set out below.
17. The Minister may also take into account other information, including information supplied by the applicant, about the relevant attributes of the area.
18. Information about the supply, forecast growth, demand and need for licensed early childhood services is relevant to the Minister’s assessment under section 17(2)(a), (b) and (g) of the Act.
19. In assessing applications for approval, the Minister will consider the best available relevant information about the supply, forecast growth, demand, and need for services in the area to be served, as described below.
20. Based on that relevant information, the Minister will assess:
21. The assessment of need referred to at 20(a) is distinct from the assessment of broader supply and demand factors referred to at 20(b), although there may be significant overlap between them. The assessment of need relates to whether the proposed service will meet an identified unmet need in the area to be served, whereas the broader assessment of supply and demand relates to the impact of the proposed service on the overall network of licensed early childhood services in that area.
22. More information is provided below about how these assessments will be undertaken and the information that will be taken into account. The intention is that this approach will be developed over time as more evidence becomes available, including insights generated from the network management function.
23. This assessment may affect the Minister’s decision in the following ways:
24. Applicants are expected to identify the need the proposed service will meet and how the proposed service will meet that need, as well as assess the relevant available information about supply and demand in relation to the area to be served.
25. The following sections describe the national-level and regional-level information that will be relevant to the supply, forecast growth, demand, and need for licensed early childhood services.
26. The Ministry will maintain on its website a list of sources of relevant information that can be obtained specifically in relation to an area to be served. Information on new approvals relevant to an area to be served can be found at https://www.education.govt.nz/early-childhood/running-a-service/starting-a-service/network-management/approvals-and-revocations. Additional information on the network of licensed early childhood services can be found at https://www.education.govt.nz/early-childhood/running-a-service/starting-a-service/network-management.
27. The intention is that more information will be made available to assist potential applicants as the approach to network management is developed and more information becomes available (including as a result of verifying the applicability of current datasets and from insights generated from the network management function).
28. Initially, it is likely that more reliance will be placed on relevant information submitted by the applicant about local factors affecting need and demand than on the statistics set out below.
29. In all cases the Minister is likely to consider the following information, accessible from the Ministry’s website.
30. In a particular case, the Minister may also consider other information relevant to supply, demand and need for a service if such information is objective, verifiable based on evidence, provides a reasonable basis for comparison with other services, and provides a reasonable basis on which to assess the supply, demand or need for a service.
31. This information may be already held by the Ministry, supplied by the applicant, or gathered by the Minister during the application process.
32. The Minister will not necessarily take into account other information and may decide to disregard other information if there is already sufficient information on which to make a decision or the other information is not considered sufficiently reliable or relevant.
33. In assessing applications in respect of a particular area, the Minister may also take note of the following additional information and assumptions relating to demand or need:
34. High level national-level and regional-level information about the supply, forecast growth, demand, and need for licensed early childhood services is provided in Appendix B.
35. The information referred to in this Statement relating to supply, demand and need is the best available information that has been identified at the time and is set out above to assist potential applicants to consider the necessary factors in making an application. No warranty is given as to its accuracy at any particular time.
36. Further the purpose of network management is not to protect the commercial interests of any person or to protect licensed service providers from any competition. Granting network approval, including a favourable assessment of demand and need, does not provide any guarantee or assurance that there will be demand for the service. Further the Minister is not required to decline network approval for an applicant merely because the proposed new service will impact an existing licensed or forecast service.
37. If the Minister intends to rely on potentially unfavourable information that was not available to the applicant at the time of the application (eg because the relevant information has since changed or because it is information held by the Ministry), the Minister may provide the applicant with an opportunity to respond to the potentially unfavourable information.
38. This section sets out other information relevant to applications for approval, including describing the other information that will likely be relevant to assessing other parts of the statutory criteria and the Minister's approach to those criteria.
39. Where this Statement refers to information that will likely be relevant, this is provided to assist applicants to understand what should be addressed in the application. The Minister may in any particular case consider other relevant information.
40. The Minister will take into account whether the applicant and every individual involved in the governance of the proposed service are suitable. At a minimum this requires the Minister to consider and determine whether each individual is a fit and proper person, including by considering the Secretary’s assessment provided under section 18(4) of the Act.
41. The information relevant to the Minister’s determination relating to fit and proper persons will be the Secretary’s assessments and any information relevant to those assessments (which is information about the matters listed in section 18 of the Act and in the Regulations).
42. An application for approval will be declined if the Minister determines that the applicant or any individual involved in its governance is not a fit and proper person to operate a licensed early childhood service.
43. The Minister will take into account the applicant’s financial position, including by considering the Secretary’s assessment provided under section 18A(3) of the Act.
44. The information relevant to these assessments will be the Secretary’s assessment, as well as the information that may be considered by the Secretary. This includes whether the applicant has access to, or has a credible plan to obtain access to, sufficient resources to effectively establish and provide the service. It is expected that the Secretary will apply this assessment flexibly so that smaller and less commercial applicants are able to receive a favourable assessment.
45. An application for approval will almost certainly be declined if the Minister determines that the proposed service is not financially viable (eg, because the applicant does not have access to, or does not have a credible plan to obtain access to, sufficient resources to effectively establish and provide the service).
46. The Minister will take into account the licensing history of the applicant and the individuals involved in the governance of the proposed serviced.
47. This may include considering the following information if it is considered relevant:
48. This assessment of this criterion will not have significant weight to the overall decision of whether to grant or decline approval. However, the information above may be relevant and material to other parts of the assessment in particular, to both the fit and proper assessment, and to the capability assessment.
49. The Minister will take into account the applicant’s capability to effectively establish and provide the service to which the application relates.
50. The information relevant to this assessment is likely to be information about the governance and management of the applicant and proposed service, including the experience, qualifications and skills of the relevant individuals and organisations involved. Relevant qualifications, experience and skills may relate to:
51. Applicants will be expected to provide credible and reliable information, including in relation to current governance arrangements, rather than only point to future plans to acquire necessary skills.
52. This part of the assessment is particularly important and will receive significant weight in the overall decision of whether to grant or decline approval.
53. A network approval decision and a subsequent decision about whether to grant a licence are independent of each other. If network approval is granted, the fact that a matter was considered as part of that decision should not be taken as an indication about how that matter will be addressed at the licensing stage. When applying for a licence, applicants must demonstrate that all requirements set by the Education (Early Childhood Services) Regulations 2008 and relevant licensing criteria are met or complied with, including premises and facilities and health and safety standards, and overall suitability for use as an education and care centre (if applicable).
The following Service Type Categories will be used in assessing the supply, demand and need for licensed early childhood services, as described in the Statement.
Service Type Category |
Service Type Sub-Categories Included |
Licensed early childhood education and care centres (teacher led) |
Kindergartens (also referred to as “free kindergartens”). |
Other licensed education and care centres (also referred to as “education and care services” and “casual education and care”). |
|
For the purpose of network management, this category will exclude any excluded service (where this is known). |
|
Licensed early childhood education and care centres (parent led) |
Playcentres affiliated to Playcentre Aotearoa. |
For the purpose of network management, this category excludes Kōhanga Reo affiliated to Te Kōhanga Reo National Trust. |
|
Licensed home-based education and care services (teacher led) |
Also referred to as “Homebased Network”. |
Licensed hospital-based education and care services (teacher led) |
– |
Excluded service: Kōhanga Reo chartered to Te Kōhanga Reo National Trust Board Reo |
– |
Excluded service: other |
Excluded early childhood service teaching in te reo Māori, at, or close to full immersion |
Excluded early childhood service teaching in te reo Māori majority of time: affiliated to body recognised by Minister |
|
Excluded early childhood service teaching in te reo Māori majority of time: provided by or associated with iwi or Māori organisation recognised by Minister |
Area | Service Type | Count of Services | % |
New Zealand | rounded to 1DP | ||
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 7 | 0.2% | |
Education and Care Service | 2,740 | 59.8% | |
Free Kindergarten | 664 | 14.5% | |
Home-based Education and Care Service | 333 | 7.3% | |
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 20 | 0.4% | |
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 387 | 8.5% | |
Te Kōhanga Reo | 428 | 9.3% | |
Grand Total | 4,579 | ||
Education Region | Service Type | Count of Services | % of Total |
rounded to 1DP | |||
Tai Tokerau | 222 | 4.8% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 105 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 26 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 13 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 1 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 34 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 43 | ||
Auckland | 1,506 | 32.9% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 4 | ||
Education and Care Service | 1,076 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 141 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 155 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 10 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 76 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 44 | ||
Waikato | 443 | 9.7% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 266 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 59 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 20 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 1 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 47 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 50 | ||
Bay of Plenty / Waiariki | 409 | 8.9% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 212 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 48 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 25 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 2 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 28 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 94 | ||
Hawke's Bay / Tairawhiti | 293 | 6.4% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 123 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 42 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 20 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 2 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 18 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 88 | ||
Taranaki / Whanganui / Manawatu | 309 | 6.7% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 140 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 64 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 24 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 36 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 45 | ||
Wellington | 484 | 10.6% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 263 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 109 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 32 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 39 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 41 | ||
Nelson / Marlborough / West Coast | 153 | 3.3% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 82 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 32 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 10 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 1 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 23 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 5 | ||
Canterbury / Chatham Islands | 495 | 10.8% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 1 | ||
Education and Care Service | 338 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 78 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 17 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 1 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 53 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 7 | ||
Otago / Southland | 265 | 5.8% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 2 | ||
Education and Care Service | 135 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 65 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 17 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 2 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 33 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 11 | ||
Grand Total | 4,579 | ||
Source: Education Counts | Early Childhood Services | ECE Directory Builder Accessed on 7 Oct 2022 from https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/directories/early-childhood-services Note: Casual Education and Care, Education and Care Service, Free Kindergarten, Playcentre, and Te Kōhanga Reo are types of licensed Early Childhood Education and Care Centres. |
Area | Service Type | Max Licensed Positions | % of Total |
New Zealand | rounded to 1DP | ||
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 245 | 0.1% | |
Education and Care Service | 149,431 | 67.4% | |
Free Kindergarten | 26,389 | 11.9% | |
Home-based Education and Care Service | 22,015 | 9.9% | |
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 464 | 0.2% | |
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 10,651 | 4.8% | |
Te Kōhanga Reo | 12,364 | 5.6% | |
Grand Total | 221,559 | ||
Education Region | Service Type | Max Licensed Positions | % of Total |
rounded to 1DP | |||
Tai Tokerau | 8,620 | 3.9% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 4,938 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 909 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 780 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 15 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 904 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 1,074 | ||
Auckland | 82,454 | 37.2% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 131 | ||
Education and Care Service | 63,046 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 5,425 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 9,830 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 278 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 2,197 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 1,547 | ||
Waikato | 20,911 | 9.4% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 14,395 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 2,364 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,280 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 31 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 1,310 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 1,531 | ||
Bay of Plenty / Waiariki | 17,970 | 8.1% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 11,042 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 1,924 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,575 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 50 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 790 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 2,589 | ||
Hawke's Bay / Tairawhiti | 11,808 | 5.3% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 6,106 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 1,671 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,410 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 22 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 470 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 2,129 | ||
Taranaki / Whanganui / Manawatu | 14,556 | 6.6% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 7,744 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 2,570 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,700 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 1,026 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 1,516 | ||
Wellington | 21,633 | 9.8% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 12,361 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 4,550 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 2,250 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 1,113 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 1,359 | ||
Nelson / Marlborough / West Coast | 6,593 | 3.0% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Education and Care Service | 3,658 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 1,427 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 740 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 12 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 652 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 104 | ||
Canterbury / Chatham Islands | 24,762 | 11.2% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 31 | ||
Education and Care Service | 18,934 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 2,934 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,270 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 28 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 1,335 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 230 | ||
Otago / Southland | 12,252 | 5.5% | |
Teacher-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Casual-Education and Care | 83 | ||
Education and Care Service | 7,207 | ||
Free Kindergarten | 2,615 | ||
Home-based Education and Care Service | 1,180 | ||
Hospital-based Education and Care Service | 28 | ||
Parent/whānau-led licensed early childhood services: | |||
Playcentre | 854 | ||
Te Kōhanga Reo | 285 | ||
Grand Total | 221,559 | ||
Source: Education Counts | Early Childhood Services | ECE Directory Builder Accessed on 7 Oct 2022 from https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/directories/early-childhood-services Note: Casual Education and Care, Education and Care Service, Free Kindergarten, Playcentre, and Te Kōhanga Reo are types of licensed Early Childhood Education and Care Centres. |
Area | Population (Census 2018) |
Population 0-4 (Census 2018) |
Projected population by 2033 |
Projected 0-4 population by 2033 |
Projected population growth by 2033 (%) |
Projected 0–4 population growth by 2033 (%) |
New Zealand | 4,699,755 | 294,921 | 5,564,400 | 295,800 | 18.4% | 0.3% |
Education Region | Population (Census 2018) |
Population 0–4 (Census 2018) |
Projected population by 2033 |
Projected 0–4 population by 2033 |
Projected population growth by 2033 (%) |
Projected 0–4 population growth by 2033 (%) |
Tai Tokerau | 179,079 | 11,685 | 215,100 | 11,800 | 20.1% | 1.0% |
Auckland | 1,571,718 | 102,765 | 2,001,800 | 109,950 | 27.4% | 7.0% |
Waikato | 429,849 | 29,256 | 524,820 | 30,010 | 22.1% | 2.6% |
Bay of Plenty, Waiariki | 349,236 | 22,836 | 421,220 | 22,470 | 20.6% | -1.6% |
Hawke’s Bay, Tairawhiti | 213,804 | 14,376 | 246,300 | 14,100 | 15.2% | -1.9% |
Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu | 292,827 | 19,011 | 331,650 | 18,250 | 13.3% | -4.0% |
Wellington | 558,015 | 32,850 | 642,650 | 32,550 | 15.2% | -0.9% |
Nelson, Marlborough, West Coast | 186,096 | 9,825 | 209,050 | 9,090 | 12.3% | -7.5% |
Canterbury and Chatham Islands | 594,690 | 34,575 | 710,350 | 34,830 | 19.4% | 0.7% |
Otago, Southland | 324,405 | 17,742 | 376,000 | 17,070 | 15.9% | -3.8% |
Source: | Statistics New Zealand | |||||
Population Dataset: | Age and sex by ethnic group (grouped total responses), for census usually resident population counts, 2006, 2013, and 2018 Censuses (RC, TA, SA2, DHB) | |||||
Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE8277 | |||||
Area: | Territorial Authority | |||||
Age group: | Total people – age group, and 0–4 years | |||||
Year: | 2018 | |||||
Population Projection Dataset for New Zealand: | National population projections, by age and sex, 2022(base)–2073 | |||||
Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE8610 | |||||
Note: | Released July 2022 | |||||
Scenario: | 50th percentile (median) | |||||
Age: | Total people, age and 0–4 years | |||||
Year: | 2033 | |||||
Population Projection Dataset for Education Regions: | Statistical area 2 population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)–2048 |
|||||
Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE7991 | |||||
Note: | 2022(base) projection data is only available at National level, and therefore Education Region projected population data has been provided from Census 2018 | |||||
Area: | Territorial Authority | |||||
Projection: | Medium | |||||
Year at 30 June: | 2033 | |||||
Age: | Total people, age and 0-4 years | |||||
Notes: Data exported at Territorial Authority level is grouped into Education Regions. Waikato Education Region excludes Taupo District and Rotorua District, and includes the Ruapehu District (which crosses across Education Regions). Taranaki/Whanganui/Manawatu Education Region excludes Ruapehu District. Bay of Plenty/Waiariki Education Region includes Taupo District and Rotorua District. Wellington Education Region includes Tararua and Horowhenua. Nelson, Marlborough, West Coast Education Region includes Kaikoura District. Canterbury and Chathams Education Region excludes Kaikoura. Where a person reported more than one ethnic group, they have been counted in each applicable group. Population outside of Territorial Authorities is excluded from Education Region breakdowns. |
Area | Ethnicity | Population (2018 Census) |
Population 0–4 (2018 Census) |
Projected population by 2033 |
Projected 0–4 population by 2033 |
||
New Zealand | Māori | 775,836 | 81,207 | 1,068,900 | 94,400 | ||
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 3,355,917 | 197,556 | 3,759,700 | 196,100 | |||
Pacific | 381,642 | 42,255 | 563,600 | 53,800 | |||
Asian | 707,598 | 53,832 | 1,143,700 | 63,700 |
Education Region | Ethnicity | Population (2018 Census) |
Population 0–4 (2018 Census) |
Projected population by 2033 |
Projected 0–4 population by 2033 |
Projected population growth by 2033 (%) |
Projected 0–4 population growth by 2033 (%) |
Tai Tokerau | Māori | 64,461 | 6,585 | 85,810 | 7,340 | 33.1% | 11.5% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 133,095 | 8,028 | 161,400 | 8,960 | 21.3% | 11.6% | |
Pacific | 7,542 | 1,080 | 12,860 | 1,485 | 70.5% | 37.5% | |
Asian | 7,038 | 654 | 13,730 | 995 | 95.1% | 52.1% | |
Auckland | Māori | 181,194 | 18,990 | 246,400 | 20,950 | 36.0% | 10.3% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 858,132 | 51,573 | 933,300 | 48,580 | 8.8% | -5.8% | |
Pacific | 243,966 | 25,620 | 339,900 | 30,110 | 39.3% | 17.5% | |
Asian | 442,674 | 32,214 | 774,100 | 40,220 | 74.9% | 24.9% | |
Waikato | Māori | 102,828 | 11,103 | 140,920 | 12,890 | 37.0% | 16.1% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 323,166 | 20,883 | 380,880 | 21,750 | 17.9% | 4.2% | |
Pacific | 19,815 | 2,619 | 33,090 | 3,665 | 67.0% | 39.9% | |
Asian | 42,240 | 3,645 | 78,760 | 5,360 | 86.5% | 47.1% | |
Bay of Plenty, Waiariki | Māori | 101,784 | 10,425 | 135,350 | 11,740 | 33.0% | 12.6% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 262,287 | 16,002 | 315,230 | 16,310 | 20.2% | 1.9% | |
Pacific | 12,201 | 1,593 | 19,970 | 2,400 | 63.7% | 50.7% | |
Asian | 24,072 | 2,103 | 45,660 | 3,580 | 89.7% | 70.2% | |
Hawke’s Bay, Tairawhiti | Māori | 70,047 | 7,278 | 95,220 | 8,310 | 35.9% | 14.2% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 154,638 | 9,411 | 170,920 | 9,100 | 10.5% | -3.3% | |
Pacific | 11,481 | 1,509 | 18,090 | 1,970 | 57.6% | 30.6% | |
Asian | 9,570 | 816 | 19,490 | 1,520 | 103.7% | 86.3% | |
Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu | Māori | 59,955 | 6,525 | 85,520 | 7,800 | 42.6% | 19.5% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 242,991 | 15,219 | 265,920 | 14,550 | 9.4% | -4.4% | |
Pacific | 10,071 | 1,386 | 16,670 | 1,855 | 65.5% | 33.8% | |
Asian | 18,456 | 1,764 | 34,230 | 2,500 | 85.5% | 41.7% | |
Wellington | Māori | 84,813 | 8,469 | 115,850 | 9,880 | 36.6% | 16.7% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 428,211 | 24,231 | 474,350 | 23,630 | 10.8% | -2.5% | |
Pacific | 45,015 | 4,674 | 59,010 | 5,375 | 31.1% | 15.0% | |
Asian | 67,428 | 5,265 | 114,340 | 7,140 | 69.6% | 35.6% | |
Nelson, Marlborough, West Coast | Māori | 20,718 | 2,232 | 28,910 | 2,660 | 39.5% | 19.2% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 169,125 | 8,781 | 188,200 | 8,270 | 11.3% | -5.8% | |
Pacific | 4,026 | 444 | 6,600 | 600 | 63.9% | 35.1% | |
Asian | 8,199 | 720 | 15,560 | 1,035 | 89.8% | 43.8% | |
Canterbury and Chatham Islands | Māori | 55,884 | 6,096 | 83,660 | 7,685 | 49.7% | 26.1% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 498,171 | 27,960 | 568,750 | 27,735 | 14.2% | -0.8% | |
Pacific | 18,894 | 2,358 | 30,130 | 3,040 | 59.5% | 28.9% | |
Asian | 66,369 | 5,184 | 116,880 | 6,880 | 76.1% | 32.7% | |
Otago, Southland | Māori | 34,134 | 3,495 | 50,460 | 4,230 | 47.8% | 21.0% |
European or Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) | 286,080 | 15,456 | 319,100 | 14,740 | 11.5% | -4.6% | |
Pacific | 8,631 | 975 | 13,510 | 1,240 | 56.5% | 27.2% | |
Asian | 21,543 | 1,470 | 41,520 | 2,435 | 92.7% | 65.6% | |
Total: | 5,220,945 | 374,835 | 6,650,250 | 410,515 | |||
Source: | Statistics New Zealand | ||||||
Population Dataset: | Age and sex by ethnic group (grouped total responses), for census usually resident population counts, 2006, 2013, and 2018 Censuses (RC, TA, SA2, DHB) | ||||||
Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/WBOS/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE8277 | ||||||
Area: | Territorial Authority | ||||||
Age group: | Total people – age group and 0–4 years | ||||||
Year: | 2018 | ||||||
Ethnic group: | European, Other, Maori, Pacific Peoples, Asian | ||||||
Projected Population Dataset for New Zealand: | National ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)-2043 update |
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Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/WBOS/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE8613 | ||||||
Note: | Released September 2022 | ||||||
Year at 30 June: | 2033 | ||||||
Scenario: | 50th [percentile] (Median) | ||||||
Age: | Total people, age and 0–4 years | ||||||
Projected Population Dataset for Education Regions: | Subnational ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2018(base)–2043 | ||||||
Accessed from: | https://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE8606 | ||||||
Year at 30 June: | 2033 | ||||||
Scenario: | 50th percentile (median) | ||||||
Age: | Total people, age and 0–4 years | ||||||
Notes: Data exported at Territorial Authority level is grouped into Education Regions. Waikato Education Region excludes Taupo District and Rotorua District, and includes the Ruapehu District (which crosses across Education Regions). Taranaki/Whanganui/Manawatu Education Region excludes Ruapehu District. Bay of Plenty/Waiariki Education Region includes Taupo District and Rotorua District. Wellington Education Region includes Tararua District and Horowhenua District. Nelson, Marlborough, West Coast Education Region includes Kaikoura District. Canterbury and Chathams Education Region excludes Kaikoura District. Population figures for Other Ethnicity (including New Zealander) have been added to European to compare with population projections. Where a person reported more than one ethnic group, they have been counted in each applicable group. Population outside of Territorial Authorities is excluded from Education Region breakdowns. |
Dated this 24th day of November 2022.
Hon CHRIS HIPKINS, Minister of Education.
1 Service type categories are defined in Appendix A.
2The Ministry may develop a process for determining whether a proposed excluded service is recognised as having reached a stage equivalent to network approval.